Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 15 2020 | 5865 | 34361 | 192 | 40 | 1309 | 1905 |
| November 16 2020 | 6149 | 34583 | 193 | 42 | 1433 | 2054 |
| November 17 2020 | 6251 | 35217 | 197 | 45 | 1354 | 2026 |
| November 18 2020 | 6602 | 35585 | 201 | 46 | 1566 | 2286 |
| November 19 2020 | 6778 | 35890 | 203 | 48 | 1647 | 2222 |
| November 20 2020 | 6930 | 36181 | 207 | 50 | 1707 | 2214 |
| November 21 2020 | 7075 | 36582 | 211 | 54 | 1783 | 2178 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 8.9 | 4.3% | 76 | 0.66% | 89 | 0.77% |
| 10-19 | 22 | 26.9 | 13.8% | 246 | 1.81% | 315 | 2.32% |
| 20-29 | 40 | 49.0 | 24.7% | 440 | 2.1% | 544 | 2.6% |
| 30-39 | 23 | 36.6 | 16.3% | 291 | 2.14% | 351 | 2.58% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 26.4 | 12.3% | 219 | 2.09% | 274 | 2.62% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 24.6 | 11.6% | 206 | 1.64% | 254 | 2.02% |
| 60-69 | 15 | 20.4 | 9.9% | 176 | 1.53% | 202 | 1.75% |
| 70+ | 11 | 14.3 | 7.2% | 129 | 1.23% | 149 | 1.42% |
| All ages | 145 | 207.0 | 100% | 1783 | 1.7% | 2178 | 2.08% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 15 2020 | 3511 | 21197 | 102 | 38 | 1077 | 1553 |
| November 16 2020 | 3580 | 21319 | 104 | 41 | 976 | 1547 |
| November 17 2020 | 3693 | 21645 | 107 | 41 | 980 | 1565 |
| November 18 2020 | 3797 | 21827 | 107 | 42 | 1044 | 1537 |
| November 19 2020 | 3894 | 21946 | 109 | 43 | 1094 | 1460 |
| November 20 2020 | 3969 | 22178 | 114 | 44 | 985 | 1365 |
| November 21 2020 | 4175 | 22331 | 115 | 45 | 1089 | 1462 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 2.7 | 2.5% | 27 | 0.35% | 43 | 0.55% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 7.6 | 7.5% | 82 | 0.98% | 112 | 1.33% |
| 20-29 | 29 | 16.0 | 15.2% | 165 | 2.32% | 225 | 3.16% |
| 30-39 | 59 | 20.0 | 19% | 207 | 2.46% | 282 | 3.35% |
| 40-49 | 34 | 16.4 | 17.4% | 190 | 2.45% | 254 | 3.27% |
| 50-59 | 39 | 18.6 | 16.5% | 180 | 1.86% | 237 | 2.44% |
| 60-69 | 13 | 14.0 | 12.3% | 134 | 1.59% | 188 | 2.24% |
| 70+ | 20 | 10.0 | 9.6% | 104 | 1.46% | 121 | 1.7% |
| All ages | 206 | 105.3 | 100% | 1089 | 1.68% | 1462 | 2.26% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 15 2020 | 2641 | 13993 | 97 | 30 | 1055 | 1321 |
| November 16 2020 | 2721 | 14032 | 98 | 30 | 1036 | 1333 |
| November 17 2020 | 2754 | 14235 | 104 | 34 | 957 | 1330 |
| November 18 2020 | 2882 | 14400 | 109 | 35 | 1021 | 1388 |
| November 19 2020 | 3023 | 14489 | 113 | 35 | 1104 | 1437 |
| November 20 2020 | 3138 | 14614 | 114 | 35 | 1147 | 1453 |
| November 21 2020 | 3212 | 14737 | 116 | 36 | 1159 | 1415 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 4.4 | 3.9% | 45 | 0.83% | 55 | 1.01% |
| 10-19 | 16 | 11.0 | 8.9% | 103 | 1.9% | 130 | 2.39% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 16.0 | 14.5% | 168 | 3.71% | 213 | 4.71% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 18.9 | 16.8% | 195 | 3.59% | 224 | 4.13% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 18.1 | 14.1% | 163 | 3.28% | 197 | 3.96% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 18.4 | 16.7% | 194 | 2.86% | 229 | 3.37% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 16.1 | 14.2% | 165 | 2.6% | 199 | 3.14% |
| 70+ | 15 | 13.4 | 10.9% | 126 | 1.99% | 168 | 2.65% |
| All ages | 74 | 116.4 | 100% | 1159 | 2.56% | 1415 | 3.13% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 15 2020 | 6285 | 37236 | 114 | 30 | 1250 | 1677 |
| November 16 2020 | 6449 | 37430 | 115 | 30 | 1275 | 1814 |
| November 17 2020 | 6641 | 37750 | 121 | 31 | 1250 | 1901 |
| November 18 2020 | 6845 | 38261 | 128 | 31 | 1376 | 1935 |
| November 19 2020 | 6919 | 38594 | 132 | 32 | 1384 | 1884 |
| November 20 2020 | 7081 | 38863 | 137 | 32 | 1455 | 1907 |
| November 21 2020 | 7287 | 39084 | 138 | 32 | 1454 | 1896 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 4.6 | 2.8% | 41 | 0.35% | 56 | 0.47% |
| 10-19 | 17 | 12.7 | 9.6% | 139 | 0.84% | 184 | 1.11% |
| 20-29 | 48 | 30.4 | 21% | 306 | 1.44% | 391 | 1.84% |
| 30-39 | 32 | 28.7 | 17.4% | 253 | 1.86% | 324 | 2.38% |
| 40-49 | 37 | 19.1 | 12.6% | 183 | 1.35% | 246 | 1.81% |
| 50-59 | 25 | 23.1 | 16% | 233 | 1.64% | 301 | 2.12% |
| 60-69 | 26 | 17.9 | 10.9% | 159 | 1.12% | 218 | 1.54% |
| 70+ | 15 | 15.0 | 9.6% | 140 | 1.08% | 176 | 1.35% |
| All ages | 206 | 151.6 | 100% | 1454 | 1.23% | 1896 | 1.6% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 15 2020 | 21720 | 259011 | 667 | 61 | 4425 | 5709 |
| November 16 2020 | 22223 | 259512 | 673 | 61 | 4416 | 6016 |
| November 17 2020 | 22930 | 261256 | 695 | 64 | 4656 | 6162 |
| November 18 2020 | 23474 | 262791 | 706 | 68 | 4951 | 6511 |
| November 19 2020 | 23869 | 263742 | 714 | 69 | 5072 | 6574 |
| November 20 2020 | 24317 | 265581 | 715 | 72 | 4823 | 6510 |
| November 21 2020 | 24654 | 266695 | 726 | 75 | 4698 | 6380 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 31 | 25.3 | 4.9% | 229 | 0.38% | 322 | 0.54% |
| 10-19 | 44 | 83.6 | 17.7% | 833 | 1.17% | 1090 | 1.53% |
| 20-29 | 72 | 109.4 | 23.5% | 1106 | 1.06% | 1531 | 1.47% |
| 30-39 | 77 | 78.4 | 16.2% | 759 | 0.99% | 1028 | 1.34% |
| 40-49 | 40 | 62.3 | 13.1% | 614 | 0.94% | 837 | 1.28% |
| 50-59 | 35 | 52.9 | 11.2% | 524 | 0.8% | 714 | 1.09% |
| 60-69 | 20 | 34.7 | 7.5% | 354 | 0.65% | 452 | 0.83% |
| 70+ | 18 | 25.7 | 5.9% | 279 | 0.57% | 406 | 0.83% |
| All ages | 337 | 472.3 | 100% | 4698 | 0.86% | 6380 | 1.17% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 15 2020 | 312369 | 2001239 | 14381 | 2637 | 62445 | 83506 |
| November 16 2020 | 316758 | 2009148 | 14499 | 2649 | 60693 | 84462 |
| November 17 2020 | 323848 | 2024801 | 14817 | 2741 | 60718 | 85781 |
| November 18 2020 | 331837 | 2036941 | 15100 | 2793 | 64427 | 87835 |
| November 19 2020 | 338472 | 2049526 | 15336 | 2876 | 66702 | 88548 |
| November 20 2020 | 344945 | 2062191 | 15526 | 2954 | 66102 | 88880 |
| November 21 2020 | 351169 | 2073860 | 15734 | 3005 | 65278 | 88039 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 272 | 266.0 | 4% | 2631 | 0.41% | 3572 | 0.56% |
| 10-19 | 708 | 707.7 | 11.3% | 7362 | 0.97% | 10132 | 1.34% |
| 20-29 | 1047 | 1074.0 | 16.9% | 11047 | 1.46% | 15209 | 2.01% |
| 30-39 | 1038 | 1028.6 | 15.9% | 10389 | 1.37% | 13765 | 1.82% |
| 40-49 | 883 | 945.6 | 14.7% | 9611 | 1.38% | 12767 | 1.83% |
| 50-59 | 1005 | 1020.6 | 15.9% | 10367 | 1.27% | 13792 | 1.69% |
| 60-69 | 657 | 729.4 | 11.3% | 7395 | 0.98% | 9982 | 1.32% |
| 70+ | 614 | 636.4 | 9.9% | 6476 | 1.01% | 8820 | 1.38% |
| All ages | 6224 | 6408.3 | 100% | 65278 | 1.12% | 88039 | 1.51% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 208.1 | 231.5 | 259.9 | 207 | 142.6 | 35.9% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 226.1 | 105.3 | 122.3 | 36.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 312.7 | 116.4 | 81 | 46.6% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160.4 | 111.2 | 183.7 | 151.6 | 126.6 | 33.5% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 116.7 | 153.4 | 147.4 | 472.3 | 389.4 | 26.8% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 151.2 | 133.9 | 200.9 | 6408.3 | 5825.1 | 34.7% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 6.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.48 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-12 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2855"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges